2000 Presidential Election
Background
One
of the many claims made while determining the result of the 2000 Presidential
election was that Palm Beach County's "butterfly ballot" caused
people to mistakenly vote for Pat Buchanan rather than Al Gore, and that this
changed the result of the election. In
this project you will analyze the data, using linear regression, to determine
whether there is any evidence to support this hypothesis.
Data
Below
is a table of the results of the voting in each of Florida's 67 counties. Listed for each county are the number of
votes cast for Gore, Bush, Buchanan and all other candidates, and the total
number of votes cast. Data was obtained
from http://madison.hss.cmu.edu/,
by way of Prof. Kevin Lanning.
|
County |
GORE |
BUSH |
BUCHANAN |
Other |
Total |
|
ALACHUA |
47365 |
34124 |
263 |
3977 |
85729 |
|
BAKER |
2392 |
5610 |
73 |
79 |
8154 |
|
BAY |
18850 |
38637 |
248 |
1070 |
58805 |
|
BRADFORD |
3075 |
5414 |
65 |
119 |
8673 |
|
BREVARD |
97318 |
115185 |
570 |
5322 |
218395 |
|
BROWARD |
386561 |
177323 |
788 |
8724 |
573396 |
|
CALHOUN |
2155 |
2873 |
90 |
56 |
5174 |
|
CHARLOTTE |
29645 |
35426 |
182 |
1643 |
66896 |
|
CITRUS |
25525 |
29765 |
270 |
1640 |
57200 |
|
CLAY |
14632 |
41736 |
186 |
799 |
57353 |
|
COLLIER |
29918 |
60433 |
122 |
1668 |
92141 |
|
COLUMBIA |
7047 |
10964 |
89 |
408 |
18508 |
|
DADE |
328764 |
289492 |
560 |
6546 |
625362 |
|
DE SOTO |
3320 |
4256 |
36 |
193 |
7805 |
|
DIXIE |
1826 |
2697 |
29 |
114 |
4666 |
|
DUVAL |
107864 |
152098 |
652 |
4022 |
264636 |
|
ESCAMBIA |
40943 |
73017 |
502 |
2186 |
116648 |
|
FLAGLER |
13897 |
12613 |
83 |
518 |
27111 |
|
FRANKLIN |
2046 |
2454 |
33 |
111 |
4644 |
|
GADSDEN |
9735 |
4767 |
38 |
187 |
14727 |
|
GILCHRIST |
1910 |
3300 |
29 |
156 |
5395 |
|
GLADES |
1442 |
1841 |
9 |
73 |
3365 |
|
GULF |
2397 |
3550 |
71 |
126 |
6144 |
|
HAMILTON |
1722 |
2146 |
23 |
73 |
3964 |
|
HARDEE |
2339 |
3765 |
30 |
99 |
6233 |
|
HENDRY |
3240 |
4747 |
22 |
129 |
8138 |
|
HERNANDO |
32644 |
30646 |
242 |
1687 |
65219 |
|
HIGHLANDS |
14167 |
20206 |
127 |
649 |
35149 |
|
HILLSBOROUGH |
169557 |
180760 |
847 |
9131 |
360295 |
|
HOLMES |
2177 |
5011 |
76 |
131 |
7395 |
|
INDIAN RIVER |
19768 |
28635 |
105 |
1114 |
49622 |
|
JACKSON |
6868 |
9138 |
102 |
192 |
16300 |
|
JEFFERSON |
3041 |
2478 |
29 |
94 |
5642 |
|
LAFAYETTE |
789 |
1670 |
10 |
36 |
2505 |
|
LAKE |
36571 |
50010 |
289 |
1741 |
88611 |
|
LEE |
73560 |
106141 |
305 |
4371 |
184377 |
|
LEON |
61425 |
39053 |
282 |
2353 |
103113 |
|
LEVY |
5398 |
6858 |
67 |
401 |
12724 |
|
LIBERTY |
1017 |
1317 |
39 |
37 |
2410 |
|
MADISON |
3014 |
3038 |
29 |
81 |
6162 |
|
MANATEE |
49177 |
57952 |
271 |
2821 |
110221 |
|
MARION |
44665 |
55141 |
563 |
2587 |
102956 |
|
MARTIN |
26620 |
33970 |
112 |
1311 |
62013 |
|
MONROE |
16483 |
16059 |
47 |
1289 |
33878 |
|
NASSAU |
6879 |
16280 |
90 |
332 |
23581 |
|
OKALOOSA |
16948 |
52093 |
267 |
1372 |
70680 |
|
OKEECHOBEE |
4588 |
5057 |
43 |
165 |
9853 |
|
ORANGE |
140220 |
134517 |
446 |
4942 |
280125 |
|
OSCEOLA |
28181 |
26212 |
145 |
1119 |
55657 |
|
PALM BEACH |
268945 |
152846 |
3407 |
7088 |
432286 |
|
PASCO |
69564 |
68582 |
570 |
4015 |
142731 |
|
PINELLAS |
200629 |
184823 |
1013 |
12004 |
398469 |
|
POLK |
75193 |
90180 |
532 |
2581 |
168486 |
|
PUTNAM |
12102 |
13447 |
148 |
525 |
26222 |
|
ST. JOHNS |
12802 |
36274 |
311 |
932 |
50319 |
|
ST. LUCIE |
72853 |
83100 |
305 |
4684 |
160942 |
|
SANTA ROSA |
59174 |
75677 |
194 |
2589 |
137634 |
|
SARASOTA |
19502 |
39546 |
229 |
1469 |
60746 |
|
SEMINOLE |
41559 |
34705 |
124 |
1601 |
77989 |
|
SUMTER |
9637 |
12127 |
114 |
383 |
22261 |
|
SUWANNEE |
4075 |
8006 |
108 |
252 |
12441 |
|
TAYLOR |
2649 |
4056 |
27 |
76 |
6808 |
|
UNION |
1407 |
2332 |
37 |
50 |
3826 |
|
VOLUSIA |
97063 |
82214 |
496 |
3483 |
183256 |
|
WAKULLA |
3838 |
4512 |
46 |
191 |
8587 |
|
WALTON |
5642 |
12182 |
120 |
374 |
18318 |
|
WASHINGTON |
2798 |
4994 |
88 |
141 |
8021 |
Problems
1.
Plot
Buchanan's votes against each of the other columns: Gore, Bush, Other and Total.
Do you see any relationships in the plots? Are there any outliers?
What do you think is the best explanation for the relationships you see?
2.
Compute
the regression line for each of the plots.
How good is the fit?
3.
Plot
the residuals for each plot. Are any
observations particularly influential?
4.
Now
remove the outliers, and compute the new regression lines. How good is the fit?
5.
Using
the regression lines in Part 3, estimate the number of votes Buchanan might
have expected to receive in Palm Beach County.
6.
It
has been argued that Palm Beach and Broward counties are similar
demographically, and so the distribution of votes should have been
similar. How do the data points for
Palm Beach and Broward compare on each plot?
7.
Bush
officially won Florida by 537 votes.
Does your work support the hypothesis that the butterfly ballot cost
Gore the election?
8.
What
problems might there be with this analysis?
See http://madison.hss.cmu.edu/ for
some ideas (there are also links to several other analyses, if you are
interested in looking into the issue further).
Do these problems seem severe enough to affect your conclusions?